Southeast New Mexico and Southwest & Central Texas - Look Out!

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0104 PM CDT SUN JUN 03 2007

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS EXPECTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS

SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA - THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY OF WESTERN LOUISIANA

NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT TRAVELED ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS THIS MORNING LEFT A BOUNDARY THAT HAS STALLED ALONG A MIDLAND- BROWNWOOD- HUNTSVILLE TEXAS LINE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES IN WAKE OF THIS THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER ALONG/NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EVIDENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE OVER NEW MEXICO. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES - THE THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY FORMING OVER NM WILL INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS OVER TEXAS DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THE RELATIVELY STRONG SHEAR THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE...THE INITIAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SUPERCELLS AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAILSTONES...LARGER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER - OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND PARTS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS INTERACT WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT - THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO ANOTHER MESOSCALE COMPLEX. INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE THUNDERSTORMS SUGGEST THAT DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME MORE OF A THREAT OVERNIGHT FROM PARTS OF SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS.
BY DAYBREAK MONDAY - EASTERN EXTENT OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM WACO ( - AUSTIN) TO NEAR SAN ANTONIO.

THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO- TELEVISION AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.
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