Latest NWS-Corpus Christi Forecast Discussion And Evacuation Route Map

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
635 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2008

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

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.AVIATION...TERMINAL SITES ARE UNDER A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR
VSBYS/CIGS CONDITIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCRP AT VFR. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER 14Z OR 15Z ONCE PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUD DECK BURN OFF. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON... THEREFORE HAVE MENTIONED VCSH MAINLY OUT WEST FOR KLRD.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED AREAWIDE TODAY THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY EVENING.

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.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2008/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...PWAT VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 2 INCHES THIS MORNING PER 06Z SPECIAL SOUNDING AND WITH 700MB TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW 10C... WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION TODAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING OVER COASTAL COUNTIES AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
DRIER AIR IS THEN PROGGED TO FILTER IN THURSDAY AS WE WILL BE ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF APPROACHING HURRICANE IKE. TODAY... TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT WARM UP EXPECTED FOR THURS.

MARINE... TODAY APPEARS TO BE THE LAST DAY WITH CALM CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUITIES TODAY WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER THE MARINE ZONES.

TONIGHT THROUGH THURS... SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS HURRICANE IKE MOVES CLOSER. SEAS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 7 TO 10 FEET BY THE END OF THE PERIOD... MAINLY FROM 20 TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OUT.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...IKE REMAINS BIG ISSUE AND WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW NHC GUIDANCE FOR WINDS AND DIRECTION.
UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS AS SOME MODELS WANT TO TAKE IT A BIT
NORTH... BUT ALL IN ALL AT LEAST THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE CORPUS
CHRISTI CWFA WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THIS SYSTEM. INITIALLY THINGS REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THINGS DO DOWNHILL IN A HURRY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AS FRIDAY EVENING APPROACHES. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INLAND... BUT GO WITH LIKELY OVER THE GULFMEX...THEN WILL GO WITH 80/90 POPS EAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY AS IKE EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AND IS LARGE ENOUGH SYSTEM TO WARRANT THESE HIGH POPS.
WOULD GO WITH 100 POPS COASTAL AREAS BUT STILL A POSSIBILITY THAT IKE MAY GO A BIT FARTHER NORTH AND STILL ENOUGH TIME TO RAISE THEM. DID CHANGE POPS (KICKED THEM UP SOMEWHAT) OVER THE NORTHEAST BASED ON ISC COLLABORATION. HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE COASTAL AREAS BASED ON LATEST TRACK. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE (GRADUALLY IS THE OPERATIVE WORD) AFTER SATURDAY... BUT STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND AND EXPECT RAIN BANDS.

UNFORTUNATELY... FORECAST DOES NOT BECOME MORE CLEAR WITH TIME... AS MODELS DIVERGE ON BRINGING A COLD FRONT DOWN. 00Z GFS TRIES TO PUSH IKE INTO WEST TEXAS AND HAVE IT STALL... KEEPING THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER... NHC FORECAST TRACK HAS IKE FARTHER EAST (MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF) AND PUSHES IT INTO CENTRAL TX. BASED ON CURRENT NHC GUIDANCE OF IKE AND CONSISTENCY... WILL BRING WIND SHIFT DOWN ON SUNDAY. DO NOT KNOW HOW MUCH OF A COOLING AND DRYING WILL OCCUR... BUT DID NOT GO OVERBOARD AND TRIED TO LINE UP WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

HOWEVER... DID GO BELOW MOS NUMBERS BASED ON THE FACT THAT THE GFS DOES NOT BRING THE BOUNDARY DOWN. ENOUGH OF MOISTURE TO WARRANT A MENTION OF RAIN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. BASED ON THE FACT THAT IKE IS THE BIGGER FISH TO FRY AT THIS TIME AND THE UNCERTAINTY WHERE IKE GOES AFTER MAKING LANDFALL... WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS POPS WITH SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS (BASICALLY DIURNAL TRENDS).

86/GW

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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 92 76 95 79 92 / 20 10 10 20 50
VICTORIA 93 74 95 77 95 / 10 10 10 20 40
LAREDO 93 77 98 79 99 / 30 20 10 10 30
ALICE 94 75 97 77 94 / 20 10 10 20 50
ROCKPORT 91 78 93 81 91 / 20 10 10 20 50
COTULLA 94 76 96 75 96 / 30 10 10 10 30
KINGSVILLE 92 76 96 77 94 / 20 10 10 20 50
NAVY CORPUS 90 78 91 82 90 / 20 10 10 20 50

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