Capt. Spaulding's World: Missouri River Flood of 2011 - Upper Missouri Reservoir Readings- 5-Day Rainfall Forecast for August 4

Thursday, August 04, 2011

Missouri River Flood of 2011 - Upper Missouri Reservoir Readings- 5-Day Rainfall Forecast for August 4

The following are the latest reservoir readings on the upper Missouri River- taken on Thursday morning- August 4.

NOTE: This presentation is being posted once a week on until September 1.

The key to the project parameters listed can be found on this previous CSW post on daily USACE project readings.

There are also three-week predictions made by USACE on inflows and discharges for each dam/reservoir in the Pick-Sloan system found HERE.

Also- the National Weather Service's US 5-Day precipitation outlook and forecasted rainfall amounts.

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METRO KANSAS CITY WEATHER HISTORY

... Since 1950 ...

1951 - July 13 - FLOOD - In the early morning darkness, the Kansas River overtops the floodwalls in both Kansas Citys.

1957 - May 20 - TORNADO - Ruskin Heights is disected by an F-5 tornado.

The tornado formed southwest of Ottawa-Kansas around 6pm and by 7:30pm- the killer vortex crossed the state line into Missouri.

Most of the unincorporated town of Martin City and nearly half of the fairly-new Ruskin Heights subdivision were eith heavily damaged or destroyed.

Forty-four deaths are officially attributed to the entire tornado's 71-mile path- 39 of those dying in Missouri.

This is the deadliest tornado in Metro KC weather history.

1961 - September - FLOOD - FLASH FLOOD -Flash flooding caused by a dying Gulf hurricane caused record floods on the Big and Little Blue rivers and their tributaries.

The heavy damage done to one of General Motors' first Chevrolet assembly plant in the Leeds district of KC-MO. helps lead to the plant's closing by the mid 1970's.

The flood brings about planning and in the 1980's construction of 2 new flood-control reservoirs - Lake Longview and Lake Blue Springs.

This greatly reduces flooding on the Little Blue River - opening up the floodplain to development in southeastern Independence and northern Lee's Summit, MO..

Yet land in neighboring Johnson County KS. is too expensive for flood-control projects for the Big Blue River - and continued flooding of the Blue Valley over then next 30 years would help lead to it's industrial-base demise.

1964 - April 12 - TORNADO -It's the first tornado outbreak in the Kansas City MetroRegion for many years.

Tornadoes cause damage southwest and west of Lawrence and in Leavenworth County and the city itself.

Other supercells produced tornadoes in Cass County MO. and around Pleasant Hill where one fatality occurred.

There were dozens of injuries all told in the affected areas with damage in the millions of dollars.

1965 - July - FLASH FLOOD - Smithville, MO. is ravaged by a flash flood on the Little Platte River.

Tracy - on the Platte River a few miles downstream from the confluence of the Little Platte - also suffers major flooding as the Platte River reaches a record crest that stands early into the 21st Century.

1966 - April 19 - TORNADO - A tornado forms over what was then farmland east of I-35 & 119th Street in Johnson County KS. and moves northeastward.

Within 10 minutes - the F-3-rated tornado strikes a new housing subdivision and barely misses an elementary school at West 96th St. & Knox in Overland Park.

There are several minor injuries and the tornado-bearing storm moves over highly-populated areas of southern K.C. & Independence, MO..

The official tornado warning wasn't issued by the National Weather Service or the local broadcast media until after the tornado had touched down - traveled it's roughly 4 to 5-mile-long path and lifted.

1966 - May 15 - TORNADO - A weak "white" tornado touches down near 15th St. & Minnesota in KC-KS.

It's only on the ground a few minutes but wreaks F-1 destruction to buildings & car dealerships along Minnesota.

A few people suffered minor injuries.

1966 - June 8 - TORNADO - A day of tornado-producing thunderstorm supercells across eastern and northeastern Kansas.

One produced an F-3 tornado that struck Manhattan, KS. around 6 pm.

Another cell spawns the first U.S. tornado to produce 100-million-dollars worth or more of damage - the devastating F-5 tornado that struck Topeka, KS..

The wedge-shaped, multi-vortex tornado roared over legendary Burnett's Mound just after 7 pm and diagonally sliced through the entire city.

Sixteen people were killed and hundreds were injured that Wednesday evening.

Around 8:30 pm- a tornado then moved across Leavenworth County and kills one in the tiny town of Jarbalo.

1967 - January 24 - TORNADO - The Orrick, MO. tornado.

A rare mid-winter thunderstorm formed on the Kansas side just after noon and became severe over southern KC-MO..

Just after 1 pm- a tornado forms southwest of Buckner. MO. - gains F-3 strength after it crosses the Missouri River - and heads for the southwestern Ray County community of Orrick.

It strikes the in-session high school on the western side of Orrick- where 3 are killed and more than a dozen are injured inside the shattered school building.

1969 - June 29 - TORNADO - A tornado - rated as strong as F-3 - hits parts of southern Platte County.

Damage is reported in Riverside and northwestern Gladstone with at least 6 injuries reported.

1973 - January 3 & 4 - ICE STORM - A massive ice & snowstorm -beginning around noon on the 3rd - hits Metro K.C..

Nearly a foot of snow falls on the several inches of freezing rain and sleet.

Tens of thousands of residents who lose power suffer sub-zero temperatures following the storm.

The tree & power line damage I see far and away exceeds that witnessed in the 1984 and 2002 storms.

1974 - September - FLASH FLOOD - Flash flood on Line Creek in KC-MO North.

Northmoor and Riverside, MO. damaged.

Residents of a Northmoor trailer park literally swim for their lives after a farm dam breaks several miles north.

1977 - May 4 - TORNADO - A mini- tornado outbreak affected every part of Metro Kansas City except the northwestern areas.

There were at least 4 separate tornadoes - 3 of them F-3 or stronger.

There are 3 deaths - 2 in Pleasant Hill where an in-session high and elementary school were hit - and one near Odessa, MO..

More than 2 dozen injuries were reported.

It was the first time I got on the tail of a twister - following it into Pleasant Hill.

1977 - September 12 & 13 - FLASH FLOOD - Kansas City's worst flash flooding in terms of lives lost and damage.

Twenty-five people died.

Up to 16-inches of rain over a 2-day period culminated on the night of the 13th.

Devastating flooding occurred along Rock and Brush Creeks from the Kansas suburbs just west of the state line eastward to the Big Blue river.

Several of the Blue's smaller tributaries like Independence's Rock Creek suffered major flooding as well.

Four people in their cars were washed away into a creek more than 10-feet out of it's banks along Raytown Road as they exited the Truman Sports Complex after the Royals baseball game was cancelled.

Most of the other victims drowned along Brush Creek between State Line and The Paseo.

The scenes I witnessed that night haunt me to this day as much as the Jan. 28, 1978 Coates House fire where 20 died.

1980 - July-August - HEAT WAVE - A prolonged heat wave is responsible for Kansas City's worst weather disaster in terms of deaths.

More than 200 people are reported to have died from various heat-related causes.

One July day was tinder-dry with Santa-Ana-like conditions.

Grass, brush and other fires citywide had the Fire Department down to a handful of companies in service when a grass fire spread to an apartment complex near 76th St. & Blue Ridge.

Four other fire departments - including Johnson County KS. - had to help what few KC-MO companies that made it there.

No one was injured - but several buildings were damaged.

1982 - August - FLASH FLOOD - Flash flooding strikes southern & southeastern KC-MO..

One fatality was reported.

The not-yet completed Longview Lake saved the Little Blue Valley from major flooding.

1984 - March - ICE STORM - A damaging ice storm affects a wide area of eastern Kansas and western Missouri - including the Kansas City Metro.

1984 - June 8 & 9 - FLASH FLOOD - Severe flash flooding affects Indian Creek from Olathe and Overland Park to it's mouth with the Blue River in KC-MO..

Hundreds of residents along Indian Creek from Olathe, Overland Park into KC, MO.. flee the record flood crests.

No one was reported hurt - but 2 young women were standed on a traffic island by floodwaters at 103rd St. & Conser in OP-KS for more than 2 hours.

A 6-inch rain guage in Olathe overflowed before it could be emptied and yet another 2.5 inches fell into it by 2 am on the 9th.

Based on this information plus flooding I was both witnessing and listening to in the Indian Creek headwaters and downstream, KCTV-CBS-5's meteorologist Mike Thompson was able to warn those downstream along Indian Creek of the danger live.

1986 - September - FLASH FLOOD - Flash flooding along Rock Creek in Mission, KS. & Brush Creek sends water again lapping at the curbs in the Plaza.

The Brush Creek flood control project - undertaken in the 1990's - has greatly reduced the flood threat for the Plaza.

However middle portions of the project not yet completed would have fatal effects on Brush Creek 12 years later.

1990 - May 15 - FLOOD - More than 8-inches of rain in 4 hours sends the Big Blue river into a massive flood and- at many points - flood crests exceeded records set during the 1961 flood.

By evening drive - there were only 2 routes open east or west across the Blue unless you lived south of Bannister Road: Independence Avenue ("Armco") viaduct and Interstate-70.

The Blue was channelized by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers during the 1990's and greatly reduced flooding as would be illustrated 8 years later during the 1998 flash floods.

1993 - July 9 - FLASH FLOOD - After a slow-moving thunderstorm complex threatens Lawrence, KS with tornadoes then floods it - the complex moves into northern Johnson County KS..

Flash flooding is by far the worst on Turkey Creek - it's entire floodplain is inundated from Overland Park & Merriam into KC-KS then into Southwest Boulevard and the West Bottoms in KC-MO..

Dozens of residents have to be swiftly evacuated by police & fire departments on both sides of the state line. Several people have to be rescued from rooftops of flooded buildings along Southwest Blvd..

One man is later found dead.

Kemper Arena is also flooded and damage figures reach the tens of millions of dollars.

WDAF-NBC4's Mike Thompson stays on the air all night- relaying high water reports I was receiving by radio.

Later that day - the now-swollen Kansas River caused two boats to be torn from their moorings.

One - the old sand dredge The General Mitchell - struck 4 bridges and was severely damaged before 2 tugboats could push the Mitchell onto the Missouri River levee east of the Paseo bridge.

Along with post-8 am flooding and the General Mitchell- the author also videotaped the Missouri rising in Parkville, a make-shift levee and a "conga-line" of people heaving sandbags onto an overtopping Line Creek levee in Riverside, MO..

1993 - July 27 - FLOOD - Record Missouri River flood crest at Kansas City.

Downtown Parkville and most of Riverside are under water.

The water supply for more than a million residents - the Kansas City Water Works - is severely threatened by the massive Missouri.

Sandbagging and the additional pumping power of nearly a half-dozen Fire department companies save it.

In KC-KS -residents of the Argentine, Armourdale and the Rosedale neighborhoods - nearly destroyed in the 1951 flood - are evacuated.

The higher levees built since the '51 flood hold.

Parts of the Turner area of KCK are not so lucky and are flooded.

Longtime co-weather service founder and friend Phil Wall - then a chief dispatcher on the KC-MO Fire department - acted five days earlier on what he and I thought was a foregone conclusion.

On the fire department mutual-aid channel- he publicly warned of "a near-record or record flood crest on the Missouri."

Hours after that radio broadcast- Phil was chastised by higher-ups for making "an unofficial" prediction public.

No one ever apologized to Dispatcher Wall during nor after the record flood crest in Kansas City.

1996 - May 26 - TORNADO - Southern Lee's Summit-MO. - what the NWS ultimately determined to be a "microburst" struck the Raintree Lake subdivision just after sunset.

There was tornadic circulation in that "microburst" - with winds "officially estimated at around 125 m.p.h.."

I saw 2x6 lumber driven into the ground at the correct angle & position on the northern edge of the damage path 20 minutes after the strike.

Several people suffered minor injuries and nearly 4-dozen homes received damage varying from slight to major.

Damage was in the $10-million range.

1998 - October 4 & 5 - FLASH FLOOD - It's the worst - and deadliest - flash-flooding event in the KC Metro since "The Plaza Flood" of 1977.

September 1998 had already been a wet month and the ground across the entire K.C. Metro was saturated.

On Sunday, October 4 - a morning of off and on heavy showers and thunderstorms produced serious flash flooding in southeastern & eastern parts of the Metro.

By mid-afternoon- the area was under not only under a NWS-issued a flash flood watch but also a tornado watch.

Around dusk- a huge thunderstorm complex formed west of Lawrence, KS. and- after deluging them- the complex moves eastward across northern Johnson County KS. into western and central Jackson County MO..

Over mid-town KC-MO - the storm dropped rain rates of 5-inches per hour from just after 7 pm..

A huge floodwave on Brush Creek overtopped the old Prospect bridge - sweeping seven people in and on top of their cars downstream.

(Minutes before this happened- an audio tape has this author pleading with a local TV weatherman over the phone to emphasize the flash flooding- rather than the tornado threat that we also were under.)

All 7 people drown- as well as a youth that Sunday afternoon in Blue Springs near Lake Jacomo and two others during the evening deluge - one each in Overland Park at a stormwater culvert that flowed toward I-435 east of Quivira and in Lenexa, KS on Little Mill Creek.

For the first time since the highway was opened around 1970 - both eastbound AND westbound lanes of I-435 just east of Quivira in OP-KS are flooded.

One man is barely saved from his pickup truck when it was washed off the eastbound lanes into the creek the gorged underground culvert was feeding.

Severe flooding again occurs on Turkey Creek - especially in Merriam- a portion of I-35 is closed by flooding for a couple of hours.

Southwest Boulevard is again flooded but water levels are not as high as in 1993.

Millions across America watching the Chiefs vs. Seattle Seahawks game on ESPN saw Arrowhead Stadium walkways turn into waterfalls as the game was halted for nearly an hour during the deluge.

2000 - May 11 - TORNADO - Surprise tornado north of The River.

"The threat of tornadoes in K.C. appears to be over."

That's what at least 2 TV weatherpeople say 15 to 30 minutes prior to a tornado touching down about 11:25 pm at 40th St. & North Oak in KC-MO..

The tornado destroys a car dealership- then rises to tree-top level for another several miles across heavily-populated KC-MO North towards the Worlds of Fun area.

Fortunately, there were no injuries.

2002 - January 27-30 - ICE STORM - MetroRegion-wide ice storm that persists over 3 days.

Damage to trees and the utility grids was tremendous - at one point more than a million people in the KC MetroRegion lost power.

There were at least 4 fatalities attributed to some aspect of this storm.

Chief KC-MO fire dispatcher Wall and I saw it coming a few days in advance- and Phil's pre-storm advisories had the city ready to go when the ice began.

Again- this and $6 got us a small latte' at Starbucks.

2003 - May 4 - TORNADO - First fatality tornado in Metro Kansas City since 1977 - and on the 26th anniversary of the '77 storm.

A tornado touches down in S.E. Leavenworth County about 4 pm in the afternoon and intensifies to F-4 as it moves across I-435 into western & northwestern KC-KS..

Both fatalities occurred in a heavily-devastated area around 91st St. & Leavenworth Road.

The tornado moved across the Missouri river into Riverside & Northmoor, MO.- producing varying degrees of damage.

The now-weakened circulation reorganized about a mile north - then moves from southwestern into eastern Gladstone- causing most of the heavy damage there.

The again F-4 tornado now roars into adjacent KC North subdivisions and on northeastward into Liberty- weakened- yet causing heavy damage on the town square and the nearby William Jewell College campus.

Two die with around a dozen people injured along the total path of the tornado. Damage was in the several tens of millions of dollars.

This outbreak began an almost week stretch of severe weather- culminating with a May 8th tornado in southwestern Lawrence-KS that damaged an apartment complex and nearby homes and caused several injuries..

2008 - May 1 - 2 - TORNADO - Another surprise tornado north of The River.

An intense- but compact storm system produces severe weather around Metro Kansas City starting the evening of May 1 (SEE CaptGSpaulding's video on YouTube).

Just after sunset on May - a tornado warning is issued by the NWS when a small tornado touches down in an open field southwest of Belton-MO.

Yet no tornado warning is in effect in the early-morning hours of May 2 when an F-4 tornado strikes Gladstone- then an F-3 twister strikes a subdivision in far northeast Kansas City-MO North.

Hurricane force winds also struck other areas- especially portions of Independence- Raytown and eastern KC-MO..

Less than a dozen people suffered minor injuries Metro-wide but daylight on the morning of May 2 reveal a man dead of what were reported as storm-related injuries near M-291 and Gudgell in Independence.

Damages Metro-wide were later estimated in the tens of millions of dollars.

Schedule of the 2007-08 K.U. Jayhawks Men's Basketball - NCAA National Champions

Kansas

University

Men's

Basketball 2007-2008

SCHEDULE Date - Opponent - Event Location - Time 10/12/07 Late Night in the Phog - Lawrence- TBA 11/01/07 vs. Pittsburg St (Exhibition)- Lawrence- 7:00p CT 11/06/07 vs. Fort Hays State (Exhibition)- Lawrence- 7:00 p CT 11/09/07 vs. Louisiana-Monroe- Lawrence- 7:00p CT Jayhawk Invitational 11/11/07 vs. UMKC- Lawrence - 7:00p CT 11/15/07 vs. Washburn- Lawrence- 7:00p CT 11/21/07 vs. Northern Arizona- Lawrence- 7:00p CT 11/25/07 vs. Arizona- (Big 12/PAC 10 Challenge) Lawrence- 7:00p CT 11/28/07 vs. Florida Atlantic- Lawrence- 7:00p CT 12/02/07 at USC- Los Angeles- 1:00p CT 12/05/07 vs. Eastern Washington- Lawrence- 7:00p CT 12/08/07 vs. DePaul- Lawrence- 1:00p CT 12/15/07 vs. Ohio- Kansas City (Sprint Center)- 4:00p CT 12/18/07 at Georgia Tech- Atlanta- 6:00p CT 12/22/07 vs. Miami (OH)- Lawrence- 12:00p CT 12/29/07 vs. Yale- Lawrence- 7:00p CT 01/05/08 at Boston College- Boston- 11:00a CT 01/08/08 vs. Loyola (MD)- Lawrence- 7:00p CT 01/12/08 at Nebraska- Lincoln- 8:00p CT 01/14/08 vs. Oklahoma- Lawrence- 8:00p CT 01/19/08 at Missouri- Columbia- 7:00p CT 01/23/08 vs. Iowa State- Lawrence- 6:00p CT 01/26/08 vs. Nebraska- Lawrence- 12:45p CT 01/30/08 at Kansas State- Manhattan- 7:00p CT 02/02/08 at Colorado- Boulder- 2:30p CT 02/04/08 vs. Missouri- Lawrence- 8:00p CT 02/09/08 vs. Baylor- Lawrence- 7:00p CT 02/11/08 at Texas- Austin-TX- 8:00p CT 02/16/08 vs. Colorado- Lawrence- 12:45p CT 02/23/08 at Oklahoma State- Stillwater-OK- 3:00p CT 02/27/08 at Iowa State- Ames-IA- 6:00p CT 03/01/08 vs. Kansas State- Lawrence- 8:00p CT 03/03/08 vs. Texas Tech- Lawrence- 8:00 p.m. CT 03/08/08 at Texas A&M - College Station-TX - 1:00p CT Big 12 Championship 03/13/08 TBA Kansas City (Sprint Center) - TBA

The University of Kansas Jayhawks men's basketball team would win the Big 12 championship, then go on to win the NCAA National Championship.

Capt. Spaulding's World

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Thursday, August 04, 2011

Missouri River Flood of 2011 - Upper Missouri Reservoir Readings- 5-Day Rainfall Forecast for August 4

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