Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Why Tornado Warnings Are No Real Reason To Panic



F
irst of all- the tornado warning may have only been NWS Doppler weather radar indications of rotation in a storm- most times that rotation inside the thunderstorm does NOT translate to a tornado reaching the ground.


IF a tornado DOES reach the ground- more than 95% of those tornadoes are less than EF-3 intensity and have a narrow width (less than 1/4 mile) and a short path (less than 3 miles).


Even the largest EF-5 tornado (Greensburg KS 2007- 2 miles wide) affects only a tiny fraction of the land area of any county and Kansas City is about 320 square miles in size covering 4 counties.




(Tornado near Hammond Ok March 8- Courtesy of John W. Cannon-Elk City DAILY NEWS)


Since 1969 when our clan moved into this house in southeastern KC-MO- we've only had ONE possible tornado-bearing storm within a mile of the neighborhood (September 1992) and there was NO tornado touchdown until the storm was several miles east-northeast of us.

During the May 2003 tornado in the Kansas City Northland- the sun was shining here. The 1977 outbreak brought a small twister about 4 miles south and the 2008 Northland tornadoes were well north (although we experienced 60 m.p.h.-plus straight line winds as most areas south of the Rivers did).

Remember this weather fact: Metro Kansas City has registered many more deaths from flash flooding than from tornadoes in the past 50 years.

I'd worry more about that aspect- as well as possibly getting struck by lightning.

Sure- it pays to be 'weatherwise' and keep an eye out to the direction of an approaching severe thunderstorm- looking for that tale-tell counter-clockwise rotation in the clouds above toward the rear of that storm.

But remember when the TV meteorologists begin their tornado warning-hype: Even IF a tornado might or HAS touched down- the geographical area that funnel would travel is awfully small in relation to the land-area size of the Metro.

And I'll take a tornado warning ANY DAY over a 7.0 or stronger earthquake.
_________

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