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Friday, April 29, 2011

Does MetroRegion Kansas City Have Any Risk For a Tornado Outbreak?

The short answer to the headline question is: not in our immediate future...

However- beginning around Mother's Day (May 8) and for about a week afterwards- another weather system will enter the Central States- slow down and stall according to some of the latest long-range weather models.

Shown are images (click on all CSW images for full size) from the NWS long-range weather models using the GFS model depictions.

First image is the beginning of the new pattern at 7 a.m. CDT Mother's Day- then a model forecast image from Wednsday May 11- then the last forecast image on Friday May 13.

The Kansas City MetroRegion could have at least a couple of days during that time period when severe weather is possible- but thus far there's no indications of a weather setup that would yield many violent tornadoes like what struck parts of the Deep South and Southeastern states several days ago.

Of more concern to our area- particularily those living east and south of the Kansas City MetroRegion would be repeated rounds of rainfall- which could bring renewed flooding threats to those areas already inundated by rain this April 2011.

Of more immediate concern is a cold front that will move through the Central States over the next 24 hours- producing a "slight risk" of severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes from the Dallas TX area northeasterward to the Little Rock AR area later tomorrow (Saturday).

There is only a slight chance of a shower or thundershower here in the Metro as this front moves through early Saturday- certainly no violent weather.

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