Giving a "99.7 chance of a 6.7-magnitude or greater earthquake" in California "within 30 years"- as some scientists predict in this AP story- is too easy.
Not to be outdone- your Captain will bet- with a 100% certainty- there's: a) a major tornado- b) a very significant ice and snowstorm- c) a killing flash flood event- d) thunderstorms-rain- hail- snow- sleet- graupel & fog- in the Kansas City MetroRegion by 2038.
Since I plan on cremation- if I lose you'll have to come collect ME to collect your winnings.
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