This "Mesoscale Convective Discussion (MCD)" is for the Kansas City MetroRegion. Cutting through the technical jargon- the chance for thunderstorms developing to our north through west increases through the afternoon and evening....
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1685
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
318 PM CDT WED AUG 08 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...NERN KS...NWRN MO...SWRN IA...
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 082018Z - 082145Z
AT LEAST ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM JUST E OF HSI TO NEAR STJ IS BEGINNING TO MIX OUT WITH A VERY HOT AND EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SPREADING NWD OUT OF KS. AREA PROFILERS INDICATE 150-250 M2/S2 0-3KM SRH ALONG THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...PROFILERS ALSO INDICATE WINDS ALOFT ARE VEERING WITH TIME...LIKELY DUE TO DEPARTURE OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS IN NERN NEB AND SRN IA. THIS CALLS INTO QUESTION OVERALL FORCING REGIME. HOWEVER...LOCAL RADARS SHOW LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR HSI...ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT INTERSECTION. GIVEN CONTINUED HEATING...MIXING OUT OF CIN AND SWLY LLJ...SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM FARTHER SW AS WELL ALONG COLD FRONT...WHERE VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS EXPANDING CU FIELD.
SUPERCELLS...WITH HAIL/WIND/POSSIBLE BRIEF TORNADOES...WOULD BE LIKELY INITIALLY ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...BUT WOULD LIKELY TRANSITION TO MORE OF AN MCS WITH HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
..JEWELL.. 08/08/2007
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...
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